Intergenerational mobility in income and education
July 8, 2025How much does parental income and education determine a child’s future? This is the key question explored in the study on intergenerational mobility in Portugal. While education levels have improved significantly over the last decades, the extent to which this translates into real social mobility remains unclear. The study takes a look at mobility in both income and education, using national survey data from the 1968-1988 birth cohorts. It finds that upward mobility exists but is limited in several ways. More than half of individuals earn more now than their fathers did, but the chances of someone born into a low-income family reaching the top income tier are still low. Educational mobility is more encouraging: over 80% of people surpass their fathers’ level of education, and full upward mobility is common among children of the least educated.
The paper uncovers important differences by gender. Women are generally more mobile in both income and education but are still less likely to reach the highest income brackets. And mobility isn’t evenly distributed: those born to highly educated or higher-income fathers are more likely to advance, while others face persistent barriers. By combining absolute and relative measures of mobility, looking at broad trends as well as specific transitions from bottom to top, the paper provides a nuanced portrait of where Portugal stands. The findings suggest that while progress has been made, especially in education, income mobility remains constrained: they have implications for equity in opportunities and for the efficient use of talent in the economy.