Beliefs, facts, and policy in the housing affordability crisis

What drives public opinion on housing policy, and can facts change minds? This paper explores these questions in the context of Portugal’s housing affordability crisis, a country where housing prices have surged dramatically in recent years. The authors conduct a large, nationally representative survey to understand how people perceive the causes of the crisis, how accurate their knowledge is about key housing trends, and what kinds of policies they support. To test whether better information can shift opinions, half of the respondents were randomly given official statistics before stating their policy preferences.

The study finds that people hold very different views about what’s driving the crisis. Some blame a lack of housing supply or low public investment, while others point to foreign investment or short-term rentals. Many respondents misjudge basic facts: they underestimate how much prices have risen and overestimate how much new housing has been built. They also misperceive population trends, especially the growth in foreign residents.

Despite these gaps in knowledge, providing accurate information had little effect on people’s policy views. Even when confronted with data that contradicted their beliefs, most respondents did not change their minds. The Figure shows which housing policies received the most and least support from the respondents, revealing strong backing for rent regulation and ending Golden Visas, and widespread opposition to building taller buildings or offering tax incentives for downsizing.

The findings suggest that simply correcting factual misunderstandings may not be enough to build support for housing reform. People’s views are shaped not just by what they know, but by their values, experiences, and identities. For policymakers, this means that effective communication must go beyond facts—it must also engage with how people interpret and feel about the housing crisis.

Click here to go to the paper by Alda Botelho Azevedo, Inês Gonçalves, João Pereira dos Santos.